Published: Thu, July 11, 2019
Research | By Sheri Schwartz

Tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

Tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

The storm is expected to continue moving westward before turning northwestward on Friday as a strong tropical storm with 60-mile-per-hour winds. Hurricane Hunters are flying into the storm this afternoon to get a better idea of what its doing.

The developing storm system was likely to become Tropical Storm Barry.

Whether it eventually becomes a hurricane or not remains to be seen, but the NOAA has released a storm forecast which warns it might.

The governor of Louisiana on Wednesday declared a state of emergency over a storm that's already caused severe flooding in New Orleans.

The likelihood of a tropical system is still high in the northern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week.

A potential tropical cyclone is not a tropical depression, which has a closed low-level center of circulation, or a tropical storm, which has a closed low-level circulation with sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour.

Although the storm's impact on production is expected to be minimal, Shell has evacuated all nonessential staff in the eastern drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico out of precaution, spokeswoman Cindy Babski told CNN. Flood concerns, both from rainfall and storm surge, will remain high through then. Those from MS to Southeastern Texas should still monitor this and prepare for the potential of flooding rains and high winds.

You'll notice parts of the Brazos Valley are included in the "cone of uncertainty" in the forecast track made by the National Hurricane Center. Right along the coast south of Louisiana, water temperatures are now approaching 32ºC - more than ample fuel for a healthy storm.

Formation of tropical storms near the United States is different than the more commonly known tropical storms that originate from the west coast of Africa from late summer to the early autumn.

The Mississippi River is predicted to crest at 20 feet on Saturday, which, as meteorologist Eric Holthaus pointed out, is the height of New Orleans' levees. Confidence is high that a tropical depression will develop and strengthen into a tropical storm!

The ridge will block the low from moving north in the short term, and the clockwise flow around the stronger of the two pressure centres - the one closer to the Rockies - is expected to steer the low out into the Gulf before ushering it back to the west.

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