Published: Thu, September 12, 2019
Research | By Sheri Schwartz

New Tropical disturbance being followed could impact Gulf Coast

New Tropical disturbance being followed could impact Gulf Coast

Even as Gabrielle ends as a tropical system, there are 3 waves being monitored at various points of the wide-spanning Atlantic.

For the system nearest to the United States the see a 0% chance of formation into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, rising to 30% over the next 5 days. The closer tropical wave is moving west but is not expected to organize in the next few days thanks to stronger wind shear.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with a chance of coastal showers and t-storms by morning and lows in the mid to upper 70s inland and near 80 at the beaches.

According to the NHC, the system continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

This system will move very slowly west northwest across the Bahamas.

An upper level circulation over south Texas will continue to send tropical moisture into south Texas from the Gulf through Thursday, giving us more shower and t-storm chances. There are now several other systems in the Atlantic. The tropical disturbance, designated as Invest 95L, has at least a 60 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression, hurricane forecasters said.

A further tropical wave, just off of Africa, is not organized now, but conditions will be favorable for it to develop and intensify as it moves west across the warm Atlantic. This will not last long though, rain chances will be increasing as a trough tracks across the Gulf of Mexico and eroding the ridge over the weekend. The NHC sees a 20% chance of a storm formation.

Winds will generally range between 15 and 20 miles per hour (with higher gusts). This inconsistency leads to little confidence other than elevated rain chances at this time.

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